In 2007, the rate of retail theft was 1.44 percent of overall retail sales, the lowest rate in the 18-year history of the survey. In 2008, that rate rose to 1.52 percent of sales, translating into losses of $36.5 billion, the first uptick in six years.

It's a foregone conclusion that retailers will be getting along with less help going forward. What will probably end up happening is that costs will go up to cover shrinkage until a new equilibrium is found. The 'leaders' will be those that come up with the loss control strategies that work best at the margins.